A galaxy of political leaders, intellectuals, think tanks and human rights activists have expressed their views and concerns over the extraordinarily complex and fluid situation in Afghanistan. They include U.S. President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, other EU leaders; Secretary of State Antony Blinken , Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin; former Ambassador to Afghanistan (2014–2016), P. Michael McKinley ; Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, Former U.S. Marine General John R. Allen (Present Brooking Institute), many former U.S. Veterans who served in Afghanistan; Anthony H. Cordesman 0f think tank C.S.I.S; and a horde of media columnists Peter Bergen, Susan Glasser, Fareed Zakaria, Ishaan Tharoor, Madiha Afzal, Daniel L. Byman,Vanda Felbab-Brown among many others.
Not to be left behind is the opinion in the Chinese media – Global Times, and the Pakistan media houses. Add to them, a large number of editors, anchors and panelists in India.
The Taliban has won the war against the U.S. Super Power with the active sustained support of Pakistan is the consensus. Pakistan created the Taliban, funded the Taliban and supported the Taliban. Also, they also bred the Islamist jihadists in their backyard. There are celebrations all over Pakistan. Even all Muslims world over are silently happy. Not to be seen left behind, even the Indian Muslim Board Member and the MP of Samajawadi Party have praised the Taliban for their stunning victory.
As per U.S. experts, the Afghan War consisted of many choices, many decisions, many policies, many actions. But, all failed due to lack of understanding the complexity of Afghan affairs. President Joe Bidden has justified the reasons for the time-bound withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces and blamed the Afghan government and army for the quick Taliban takeover. Biden is facing widespread criticism with some calling it worse than the 1975 fall of Saigon. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier stated that “the images of despair at Kabul airport shame the political West” and. “We are experiencing a human tragedy for which we share responsibility.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken repeated that the administration had little option but to withdraw beginning on May 1 because of a deal made by the Trump administration, which would have resulted in resumed attacks by the Taliban on US and coalition forces amid the militant group’s nationwide offensive. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said that the “lack of resistance that the Taliban faced from Afghan forces has been extremely disconcerting.” “They had all the advantages, they had 20 years of training by our coalition forces, a modern air force, good equipment and weapons.” “But you can’t buy will and you can’t purchase leadership. And that’s really what was missing in this situation.”
Now, Biden has promised a “swift and forceful” response if the Taliban attacks U.S. soldiers or disrupts evacuations at the airport. However, following the loss of image of trusted ally and lost the wars against “Global Islamist Terrorism” and illegal narcotics trade, the U.S. no longer can coerce the Taliban into submission by threatening action if the Taliban fails to force al Qaeda, ISIS and other jihadist elements out of Afghanistan. Also, the U.S. has been defeated in its pursuit of promoting democracy as an ideology and nation-building. The U.S. must realize that the “Peace Agreement” is dead.
Be that as it may, Afghanistan is now part of the post-American world. And, it is the present and future course of events and developments that needs to be assessed and scenarios identified and defined with the past as the prism through which the future portends. The U.S. and the West failed to appreciate the “Will” of the Afghans and the chemistry of its society. Also, the wily Pakistanis.
The world order of the Post-Afghanistan U.S. fiasco will certainly chart a new path due to “loss of U.S. image” as a trustworthy ally. Israel stressed that “American allies in the Middle East, including Israel, would find it difficult to rely on Washington’s assurances and the important lesson for them would be to focus on building their own capability to counter threats.”
In sum, there are a whole range of perspectives over the emerging Afghanistan scenarios depending on one’s partisan leanings: New Modern and Moderate Taliban to totally radicalized Taliban.
Ipso facto, the geopolitics of the Middle East will be redefined. Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Syria and others want the U.S. out of the Middle East. Iran, besides Pakistan, has played a significant role in funding and equipping the Taliban and has directly contributed to this victory. They supported, assisted, funded and armed Jihadists, particularly to run the campaign to kill the US and British forces in Afghanistan.
Russia and China in collusion with Pakistan and Taliban will use Afghanistan as a weapon against the West particularly the U.S. and also India. None should expect them to squander the golden window of opportunity ajar to exploit. Already, they have announced its intent to aid rehabilitation and reconstruction of Afghanistan. Recognition of the Taliban regime is bound to follow sooner than later.
China is invested in Afghanistan’s stability, but it has no interest in political or military intervention. China too paid the Taliban to chase and kill rebel leaders. China eyes for the strategic mineral resources particularly copper, besides consolidation and advancement of its economic interests and BRI. Nonetheless, even China and Russia have their Islamist jihadist challenges to face and overcome.
India will be kept out by both Pakistan and China, particularly its developing strategic relationship with the U.S. in the QUAD. Few nations have as much to lose in Afghanistan as India, whose security interests are threatened by both the Taliban’s cooperation with anti-India terrorist groups and China’s growing footprint,
Experts in hindsight view peace talks in Doha, Moscow, Istanbul and other places by the Taliban as “Smoke screen”. Under the original agreement with the U.S., the Taliban are committed to prevent terrorist groups from operating in Afghanistan and are expected to evict these groups from Kabul in the next few days. Will the Taliban honor its commitment? When viewed in short, mid and long term contexts, a resurgent Taliban in connivance with Pakistan-China-Iran-Turkey will export terrorism to the U.S. UK, and Europe where they have sizable terrorists in refugee status and also into neighboring nations including CAR nations, India and even China.
Furthermore, fear and uncertainty prevails despite the Taliban assurance that they will not engage in retribution against former Afghan administration officials. The Taliban have sought to project greater moderation; but many remain skeptical. One spokesman of the Taliban stated that “they would not seek retribution against former soldiers and members of the Western-backed government, adding the movement was granting amnesty for former Afghan government soldiers as well as contractors and translators who worked for international forces.” Yet another Taliban spokesman tweeted that fighters had been instructed to protect “life, property and honor”; and “it will stay out of the upscale diplomatic quarter housing the U.S. Embassy complex.” But scenes on the ground in Kabul tell a different story.
At the same time, the Taliban warned that U.S. troops in Afghanistan must leave by Sept. 11—the anniversary of the terrorist attacks that launched the U.S. into the war. The Taliban’s spokesperson stated that “we are committed not to attack them, but he stressed they have to leave by that date. It’s not clear what will happen if American forces remain in Afghanistan after Sept. 11.”
Equally worrisome is the likelihood of the Taliban re-imposing the “Strict Sharia Law” going back to “dark, aggressive and violent rule like before” and “nothing different than 2001. During their 1996-2001 rule, the Taliban stopped women from working and punished them including public stoning. Girls were not allowed to go to school and women to wear all-enveloping burqas to go out.
Unrest in the country and drying up of foreign funds is triggering an economic and humanitarian crisis that is likely to leave many Afghans dependent on the narcotics trade for survival. If so, the refugee exodus is bound to flow through Turkey into Europe and the U.S. besides neighboring countries. In reality, the Taliban is the second name of ISIS or al Qaeda or HAMAS or etc. The next target will be France, UK, US and even Pakistan and other Muslim countries if they don’t follow strict SHARIA . The UK and Germany will soon be repenting of their liberal immigration policies with more terror strikes.
Currently, the Taliban is facing a major challenge to ensure security of Kabul. A large number of fighters belonging to the Islamic State (IS), Jaish e-Mohammed(JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) have entered Afghan capital Kabul. They are not under the control of the Taliban. They may also establish strongholds/bases in Kabul and other cities. Meanwhile, Jihadists across the globe will be emboldened to seek a safe haven in pursuit of Jihadist end objectives. If so, the emboldened Jihadists would go against the West and the US in particular.
So, the real challenge in the next few days for the Taliban is going to be to assert their authority and reign in Islamist jihadists in Kabul and other cities. Ipso facto, no effective police forces exist to exercise control. Can the Taliban ensure Afghanistan remains free of violence?
Haibatullah Akhundzada is currently the Taliban’s supreme leader with authority over political, religious, and military affairs. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar heads the political office of the Taliban. Sirajuddin Haqqani leads the Haqqani network and oversees financial and military assets across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Mullah Yaqub, son of the late Mullah Omar, founder of the Taliban is the ‘Chief of Operations’
The Taliban have already engaged former President Hamid Karzai, Tajik leader and former CEO of Afghanistan Abdullah Abdullah and Hezb-e-Islami chief Gulbuddin Hekmatyar seeking support in forming the next government of Afghanistan.
And, the Taliban leaders – Mullah Baradar and Mullah Yakub – have entered Kabul and are trying to prevent the foreign fighters from finding a base in Kabul. The Taliban has asked the foreign jihadist groups to leave Afghanistan. Will they depart from Afghanistan?
Experts have expressed quite a few concerns over the emerging situation in Afghanistan. Some of them apprehend the consolidation and advancement of a “Jihadist state”. After all, the Taliban has already released al Qaeda, ISIS and jihadist prisoners in Kabul and other cities. Surely, they would be reinforced by other foreign jihadists from Iraq, Syria, Pakistan and other nations from across the world.
Meanwhile, Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated to the U.S. Congress that “terrorist groups like al Qaeda could reconstitute in Afghanistan sooner than the two years defense officials had previously estimated because of the rapid Taliban takeover of the country. The situation could result in a greater counterterrorism threat, he acknowledged.” Peter Bergen wrote “For the global jihadist movement, the victory of the Taliban will be as significant as ISIS victories were in Iraq and Syria…. Just as they did after those ISIS victories, many thousands of foreign fighters are likely to pour into Afghanistan to join the victorious ‘holy warriors’ and receive military training.” Susan Glasser seconds Bergen’s warning: “The possibilities, from large-scale human-rights atrocities to a new center for international jihadist terrorism, are bloodcurdling.
However, the highly complex relationship between the Pakistan government – the Taliban, the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban, Al Qaeda and other Jihadists like JeM, LeT, HuM and many others – will continue. In what form it would roll out within Pakistan and spillover into the neighborhood is quite unpredictable as of now.
Most important, what if the jihadist terrorist elements get control of nuclear material in Pakistan.
Finally, the financial self sustaining capability of the Taliban. In the fiscal year that ended in March 2020, the Taliban reportedly raked in $1.6 billion with the opium trade as one of their main sources of income. It is estimated at more than 80% of global opium and heroin supplies. A Taliban link to drug smuggling to the West via Hyderabad and other Indian cities has emerged recently. Also, they tax industries- mining operations, media, telecommunications and development projects funded by international aid. They also receive covert financial contributions from private donors and international institutions across the globe- mostly in Persian Gulf countries. Finally, the Chinese funds flow will offset the U.S. and NATO fund flows.
